“Our charts suggest that the case for a Nov/Dec rally crucially depends on how well the market has been doing going into year-end,” he wrote. “Only when Jan to October returns were strong has a year-end rally been in the cards. This year, Santa may not deliver.” Americans paid an average price per gallon of $3.689 on Friday, according to AAA. That’s down about 26% from the highest recorded average that came in June when the national average hit $5.016. Oil hit a trading low of $79.64 per barrel Friday, marking the first time since early January it has traded below $80 per barrel. Dan Niles, The Satori Fund founder, believes this week’s big sell-off has pushed the market into oversold conditions.

If you invest all your spare cash and then face an unexpected expense, you may end up losing money if you sell your stocks during a downturn. A market sell-off occurs when investors sell their positions widely and quickly. Prices fall until trading stabilizes, at which point investors can expect trading to normalize again.

What Fed watchers are watching

Addressing a Fed Listens event Friday afternoon, the central bank leader did not offer any policy observations but spoke briefly on the economy during introductory remarks. The arrival of a bull market also doesn’t mean the stock market has made it back to its prior heights. A 25% drop for the S&P 500 requires a 33% rally to follow in order to just get back to even.

Short-term, relatively risk-free Treasury bonds and funds are back in the spotlight as the yield on the 2-year Treasury continues to surge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 340 points, or 1.1%, touching below its June closing low and the 30,000 level. Stocks opened lower on Friday, continuing the recent sell-off trend that’s hit Wall Street. Shares of Costco slumped about 2% on Friday, despite posting fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and earnings that topped analysts’ expectations.

Stock market sell-off: Investors ‘are changing their focus,’ market strategist explains

The comments come two days after the Fed enacted its third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase to battle soaring inflation. Fed Listens events are public hearings during which policymakers hear from various members of the public, with Friday’s event focusing on business leaders. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell used the now-familiar term “new normal” to characterize the current state of the high-inflation low-growth U.S. economy. Just 42 stocks held on to modest gains heading into the close, with shares of Generac and Domino’s Pizza up about 3% each. All the major averages capped their fifth negative week in the last six, with the Dow giving up 4%.

• But the near-default of 12 years ago should serve as a cautionary tale, the firm said in a Monday note, when the S&P 500 crashed 17% in two weeks.
• By keeping your focus on the long term and investing carefully, your investments have a far better chance of surviving any potential market volatility.
• Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool’s premium services.
• The major averages capped their fifth negative week in six, with the Dow giving up 4%.

Even if inflation has eased, it’s remained stubbornly above the Fed’s comfort level and still causes pain for all kinds of households, particularly ones with lower incomes. “In hindsight, it might not look that bad, but it certainly feels bad in the moment,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual. Google hires a McKinsey senior partner to study tech’s effects on society. James Manyika, the chairman of the McKinsey Global Institute and a longtime adviser to Silicon Valley companies, will become the tech giant’s senior vice president of technology and society. As a general rule of thumb, then, it’s best to avoid investing any money you might need in the next several years. It’s tough to be an investor when the market is on a downhill slide.

Headed for a losing week

In these cases, some event or news has caused traders to re-evaluate the fundamental value of their holdings. They trade until the value of this security reaches a level that they believe is stable. Costco, the wholesale retail chain, was down about 2.6% after reporting its third-quarter earnings. Though the company posted expectation-beating increases in earnings per share and revenue that also marked improvements from a year ago, the company reported increases in freight and labor costs.

• The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.71% from 3.78% late Wednesday.
• Prices fall until trading stabilizes, at which point investors can expect trading to normalize again.
• “However, it’s starting to look like any surprise will involve the former… rather than the latter. The action in the stock market early next week should be the time when we get the definitive answer.”
• That’s shorter than the typical bear market, and it also resulted in a shallower loss than average, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Cashin also said he was looking to see if the major U.S. averages break key near-term support levels. “If we make lower lows, which we are on the verge of making, it would be a problem,” he said. Investors this week turned to companies that make recession-proof stuff like cereal and soup, as fears of a potential economic recession mounted. “The US is the worst-performing region if the cost of high yield rises (which we think it will, with credit spreads far too low, pricing in only a 34% chance of a recession),” he wrote. “Relative earnings revisions are rolling over sharply to be worse than global (partly due to dollar strength).” “New normal” has been put to use multiple times over the past years, most prominently to describe the financial crisis in 2008, then the Covid-era economy.